Ep 35: Stock Market Predictions

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We’re kicking off the New Year with a talk about the stock market and some predictions. As you’ll see, the experts’ predictions are all over the board.

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Show Notes

Today we’re sharing experts’ predictions about the stock market in the New Year. Major companies assess the stock market every year and give their takes on what they believe will happen. It’s important to note that they usually put caveats in their predictions. Let’s jump into it:

Vanguard

Vanguard is not as optimistic as others. They’re middle to lower side of the optimism scale. They’re projecting 10-year annualized returns for U.S. stocks of 2.3% to 4.3% per year. For non-U.S. developed markets, they’re estimating 5.3% to 7.3% per year. For emerging markets, 4.2% to 6.2%.

First Trust

First Trust has been bullish, even during Covid. They predict that the S&P 500 is going to hit 5250. As of mid-December, the market is around 4600. So, they’re still bullish. They’re predicting the Dow will hit 40,000. It’s around a 35,000 range right now.

Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sacks predicts the S&P will climb by 9%. They believe it will get to 5100. It’s another bullish company. They think things went well in 2021 and will continue to go well in 2022.

Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley is on the other end of the spectrum and thinks that the S&P is going to close lower, maybe around 4400.

Most people didn’t predict COVID or 2008 or the crashes that followed. As we talk about these predictions it’s important to keep in mind the whole picture. So, how should we prepare? You need to have a plan when building an investment portfolio. Focus on the long term rather than just looking at market turns within one year or a few years.

We should try our best to not worry about the things we cannot control. Having a strong plan and a trusted advisor is the first step in preparing for the future.

More Resources: 

https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/pages/outlook-2022-the-long-road-to-higher-rates.html

https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/investment-outlook-2022-hotter-business-cycle

https://advisors.vanguard.com/insights/article/marketperspectivesdecember2021

https://www.ftportfolios.com/retail/blogs/marketcommentary/index.aspx

Listen to the full podcast or use the timestamps below to jump to a specific section.

[4:35] Vanguard

[6:21 ] First Trust

[7:41] Goldman Sachs

[9:10] Morgan Stanley

[9:45] Who can predict?

[12:51] How to prepare

[16:00] Don’t worry

[17:04] Mailbag: Legacy question

Thanks for checking out this episode. We’ll talk to you again soon.

“It’s just human nature to worry some, especially If you see these crashes or bear markets come.”

-Scott Sierens

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